To sit or not to sit: Analysis of 1st/2nd round QBs from 1998-2020

[Jetsfan80]

13 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Mark sanchez stunk as a qb overall but was 'good' his first few years because he walked into an already built team.

The game has changed for many reasons, guys like brees, manning, aikman all stunk horribly their first few years or first year, stunk to zac wilson levels.  Some of these all time greats would be considered total busts and being benched for the mike whites of the world these days.

If you are trying to convince me that patrick mahomes would be patrick mahomes going to the jets of a few years back that had the team talent and coaching darnold had vs sitting for a full year behind alex smith and andy reid as the coach and a built team it is not going to work.

Salary cap, offensive systems, complexity of the game are greater now than they have ever been.

 

Even if the team had success the first 2 years of Sanchez's career, he wasn't "good".  He was a bottom-3 QB each of those seasons, and it was clear that he needed to improve dramatically to give the Jets a chance at a title.  He didn't.  He also failed elsewhere with other teams, in some pretty good situations.

Pat Mahomes wouldn't be the same QB here as he'd be in KC.  But my guess is he'd still be a top-10 or top-5 QB.  He has a skillset you just can't teach and checks so many of the boxes you look for out of a franchise QB.

Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford was very good in Detroit.  Joe Burrow was very good his rookie year with a pretty bad Bengals team.  Justin Herbert set the rookie TD record with the # 32-ranked OL in the league his rookie year.

It's not enough to blame or exalt a QB's circumstances as primary the reason he succeeds or fails.  I would guess that at least 60-70 % of a QBs chances of succeeding come down to DNA and skillset.  Processing speed can't be taught.  You either have it or you don't.  Sanchez didn't.  Darnold didn't.  Wilson doesn't.  

[Jetsfan80]

12 minutes ago, Embrace the Suck said:

Some guys are good to go day one, whereas others aren't. That their team treated them in one manner or another doesn't change that starting fact. Keep in mind correlation is not causation. If a QB isn't ready he needs some pine time, if he is ready throw him to the wolves, but this one size fits all nonsense we try to define for everything just isn't reality. There is almost never a golden rule that equates to success in all situations.

There's no way to prove causation, so correlation is all we have.  At least the data demonstrates there really is no correlation.

[jetspenguin]

59 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

• Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)

[Jetsfan80]

11 minutes ago, derp said:

So realistically it needs to be stratified differently (draft position and quality of prospect likely matters and explains some of your data - 2/3 the sit > 1Y hits are top 32 picks whereas 5/9 of the sit >1Y busts are second rounders, 6/14 play right away hits are top overall guys and 3/16 of the play right away busts are top overall guys), the sample size is small regardless, and there’s a bias baked in that in general teams are more likely to play guys who are ready to play earlier and those guys are more likely to be good.

My response to your last post was most of the guys who can overcome bad circumstances go #1 and the rest (including some of the #1 picks) need support which can be defense/run game/organization, skill talent, and/or sitting. Not all guys who get support will succeed, most of the ones who don’t get it will fail. I still think that.

It's certainly a complex situation with no easy answers, as you demonstrate here.  No surprise given that QB is the hardest position to evaluate, and even the best GMs are capable of being dead wrong about any given QB prospect.

But if its a nature vs nurture/environment discussion, there's no doubt on which side the aisle towards which I lean.  As I mentioned in a post above, I'd say it's about 60-70 % nature, 30-40 % nurture.  The skills a QB brings to the table mean more than the situation he walks into.

A lot of people have that reversed or would even say its 80+ % nurture.  No chance I could agree with that.  Time after time we've seen dogsh*t QBs who even the best coaches in the league can't lift to the level of "decent starter" and who those same coaches look to move on from as soon as possible.

[jetspenguin]

10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Sort of.  You can't really project how a QB will handle the speed of pro defenses until he gets into the league, and yet processing speed may well be the # 1 most important characteristic for a QB prospect.  Perhaps VR technology will provide more avenues for measuring this ability.  But until then its a bit of a mystery.

It's why a lot of pro teams have been heavily favoring prospects with elite athleticism and QBs who can do a lot of damage on the run.  If all else fails, QBs who are great athletes can "buy time" with tremendous god-given abilities.  Cam Newton and Josh Allen fall into that category.  

So........did we actually put anything to rest?

[GangGreen Machine]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

The "2nd chance" guys are definitely an interesting conundrum.  It certainly seems to show that there's something to be said with:  1) Gaining maturity and skills over time, and 2) Finding the right scheme and coaching staff.

With a QB like Geno Smith, it was clear to anyone watching that he had SOME baseline ability to play the QB position.  His issues were primarily linked to lacking maturity, with a splash of poor decision-making.  Given enough time to grow up and put in the work as a long time as a backup, he's resurrected his career.

Still, those examples are very much few and far between.  And for Geno, very little of it likely had anything to do with whether he played right away or not.  He wasn't going to mature enough in 4 weeks, 16 weeks, or 2 seasons to be a QB1 in this league.  He clearly needed years and years of grinding until 1) His prefrontal cortex developed and 2) The right opportunity arrived.  

In 2022, outside of 2-3 freakishly good QB's, most teams are realizing that you can have success in this league with a great D, creative Offensive scheme and a competent QB.

I don't see the trend of revitalizing a QB's career going away any time soon. Especially with the dollar figures coming out on these "franchise" guys getting second contracts. They are roster killers. 

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, jetspenguin said:

 

2nd round pick who was a 2x Pro Bowler?  I'd call that a hit.  Even if much of the credit goes to the Mike Martz system.

Any others on the list you have quibbles with?  If its just 1 or 2 that would fall well within the margin for error.   

[slimjasi]

Great work, @Jetsfan80

i agree - no obvious correlation either way. Interesting.

Once more, the big challenge we encounter again and again when we talk about this stuff is that SO many guys bust or disappoint, in general. Hence, none of the factors we want to look at (performance in first year, time on bench, big school vs. small school) ever have a chance of being statistically significant predictors of success or failure, because most guys bust REGARDLESS. 
 

the NFL draft is a minefield of busts 

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, jetspenguin said:

So........did we actually put anything to rest?

We did.  We determined that whether a QB sits or plays right away, his processing speed very likely is what it is.  That's DNA.  It's not gonna change a whole lot through coaching, watching, or the mentoring of a veteran.  He won't be any less overwhelmed in Week 12 than he is in Week 2.  

And a case can be made its best to see what the QB looks like against live bullets as soon as possible, so you can evaluate whether his processing speed is something you can work with.

[PorP]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

• Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
• Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
• Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
• Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
• Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
• Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
• Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
• Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
• Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
• Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
• Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
• Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
• Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
• Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

• Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
• Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
• David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
• Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
• Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
• Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
• Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
• Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
• Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
• Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
• Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
• EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
• Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
• Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
• DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
• Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

• Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
• Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
• Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
• Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
• Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

• Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
• Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
• Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
• Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
• Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
• Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
• Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
• Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
• Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
• Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
• Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
• Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
• Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

• Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
• Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
• Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
• Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
• Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
• Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
• Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
• Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
• Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
• Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
• JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
• Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
• Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
• Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
• Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

• Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
• Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
• Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
• Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
• Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
• Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
• J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
• Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
• Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
• Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
• Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
• Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
• Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
• Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

• Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
• Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
• Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
• Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

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Nice research 80!

Not sure what I did to make the list but am positive I earned it at some point lol. 

[Darnold's Forehead]

What is interesting is that of the 30 QBs who started right away, only 8 of them were prior to 2008.  I think I remember Mark Sanchez talking about this on some show this year or last year regarding why Zach's QB class was so bad.  In 2008 you had Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan come into the league and have success on good teams, ultimately going to the playoffs as rookies.  Mark Sanchez the next year.  The league really attached onto this and started throwing rookie QBs out to the wolves from there on.

Of the 15 QBs jf80 listed who sat >1 year, 11 were drafted prior to 2008.  You don't see it anymore, for better or for worse.

Also one of my favorite players in the league the last 2 decades was Alex Smith.  1st overall, started some of his rookie year on a horrid team and played awful.  He was pretty much horrendous his first 3 seasons and then missed his entire 4th season from an injury (aka BUST).  Harbaugh came in, whipped SF into shape along with Smith, and he was a good QB ever since.  A special story and obviously rare, but at this point I think that's the biggest hope for Zach (not Josh Allen lol).  Shut him down the remainder of the year, keep White or better competition for next year, and just keep working him.  Hopefully at some point down the line he can show up for us.

[Jetsfan80]

16 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

There are way too many variables, and way too small of a sample to do this analysis with any meaning at all. This is a total waste of time and tells you literally nothing.

Exactly:  No conclusions can be drawn.  Meaning no one make a meaningful claim that sitting and watching does anything of substance for a QB.  Glad we figured this one out together!

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, GangGreen Machine said:

In 2022, outside of 2-3 freakishly good QB's, most teams are realizing that you can have success in this league with a great D, creative Offensive scheme and a competent QB.

I don't see the trend of revitalizing a QB's career going away any time soon. Especially with the dollar figures coming out on these "franchise" guys getting second contracts. They are roster killers. 

That's a huge part of it.  2nd chance QBs are, by and large, much cheaper.  It allows you to do so much more with the rest of the roster.  These expensive QBs tend to have guys who should be working for FedEx on their OL and in the secondary.  

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, PorP said:

Nice research 80!

Not sure what I did to make the list but am positive I earned it at some point lol. 

I decided to tag in all my fans and haters.  lol.  

[Jetsfan4life90]

@Jetsfan80, great post! Appreciate the data. 

At the end of the day, either a QB has it or doesn't and you won't figure it out for sure until they play in live games. 

[sciond]

This is great work. I can debate whether some were actual busts however it doesn't really change the feel of the data.

 What it really says is if you have a guy who seems ready to go, roll with him.

 If not, sit him then develop him and hopefully he will be a hit...

[Flea Flicking Frank]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Exactly:  No conclusions can be drawn.  Meaning no one make a meaningful claim that sitting and watching does anything of substance for a QB.  Glad we figured this one out together!

we did nothing together, I won't do anything with you, youre not my type. Each situation is unique. There are some QB's who are ready to play, and some aren't. Your notion that you can either play or not play, and can't learn is idiotic, its been proven wrong countless times.

 

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

we did nothing together, I won't do anything with you, youre not my type.

 

 

3 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

Your notion that you can either play or not play, and can't learn is idiotic, its been proven wrong countless times.

Never said you "can't learn".  Only suggested it doesn't have a meaningful impact on whether a QB will succeed or not. 

I'd like to see these "countless times" I was proven wrong about something for which no one can really prove anything.  What HAS been proven in this thread, however, is that there's no real correlation, and the debate is a silly waste of time, and meaning all the threads that seem to get created about it year after year to discuss it are silly. 

Hence why I wasted some of my own time:  So others will save theirs.  I'm pretty much a hero.  It goes:

1. The troops
2. Firefighters
3. Me

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

• Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
• Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
• Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
• Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
• Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
• Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
• Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
• Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
• Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
• Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
• Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
• Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
• Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
• Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

• Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
• Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
• David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
• Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
• Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
• Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
• Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
• Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
• Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
• Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
• Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
• EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
• Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
• Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
• DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
• Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

• Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
• Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
• Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
• Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
• Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

• Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
• Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
• Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
• Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
• Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
• Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
• Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
• Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
• Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
• Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
• Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
• Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
• Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

• Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
• Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
• Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
• Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
• Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
• Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
• Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
• Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
• Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
• Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
• JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
• Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
• Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
• Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
• Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

• Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
• Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
• Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
• Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
• Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
• Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
• J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
• Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
• Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
• Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
• Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
• Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
• Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
• Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

• Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
• Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
• Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
• Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

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What’s the point exactly?

[Claymation]

Is Geno a hit or a miss? 

 

[Flea Flicking Frank]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

Never said you "can't learn".  Only suggested it doesn't have a meaningful impact on whether a QB will succeed or not. 

I'd like to see these "countless times" I was proven wrong about something for which no one can really prove anything.  What HAS been proven in this thread, however, is that there's no real correlation, and the debate is a silly waste of time, and meaning all the threads that seem to get created about it year after year to discuss it are silly. 

Hence why I wasted some of my own time:  So others will save theirs.  I'm pretty much a hero.  It goes:

1. The troops
2. Firefighters
3. Me

you don't understand the negative impact of generalization, its a major flaw

[peebag]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

I will fight you.

Right there with ya big guy!

 

[CanadienJetsFan]

32 minutes ago, Darnold's Forehead said:

Of the 15 QBs jf80 listed who sat >1 year, 11 were drafted prior to 2008.

Very good point.

QBs have been rushed somewhat after the  collective agreement.

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Also, where is Kirk Cousins, he sat for three years I believe, then played.

Kinda like Mike White.

He went for 1st and 2nd round QBs.  I think the issue with intentionally sitting a guy is that the guy looks like a puss if he is sitting behind, say, Josh McCown.  You don't lose street cred for sitting behind Brady.  Sit behind a 49 year old Joe Flacco?  Nobody will ever believe in you.  There is no shame in sitting for these later round guys, like Cousins and IIRC, some of the staff was looking to start him over Griffin much earlier on.

Some of these guys are worried about tainting their young stud.  I remember that fat ******* carpet bagger was fine with benching Simms and treating QBs like cattle and it worked out.  It actually gave Parcells more credibility.

[Lith]

30 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Exactly:  No conclusions can be drawn.  Meaning no one make a meaningful claim that sitting and watching does anything of substance for a QB.  Glad we figured this one out together!

I just think there is no "one size fits all" approach.  Some guys are ready to play coming out of college and can handle the transition more easily.  Other guys need time to learn the complexity and speed of the pro game.  The key is whether the coaching staff is correct in their assessment of what their guy needs.

[Jetsfan80]

28 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Is Geno a hit or a miss? 

He’s in my “grey area” category that was excluded from the analysis, with 9 other QBs.  

[derp]

56 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's certainly a complex situation with no easy answers, as you demonstrate here.  No surprise given that QB is the hardest position to evaluate, and even the best GMs are capable of being dead wrong about any given QB prospect.

But if its a nature vs nurture/environment discussion, there's no doubt on which side the aisle towards which I lean.  As I mentioned in a post above, I'd say it's about 60-70 % nature, 30-40 % nurture.  The skills a QB brings to the table mean more than the situation he walks into.

A lot of people have that reversed or would even say its 80+ % nurture.  No chance I could agree with that.  Time after time we've seen dogsh*t QBs who even the best coaches in the league can't lift to the level of "decent starter" and who those same coaches look to move on from as soon as possible.

I think it depends person to person. I think very few guys are going to be good regardless (I don’t think anyone was ruining Manning or Luck), a lot of guys are going to be bad regardless (don’t think anyone was going to develop Sanchez any better or Manziel or Gabbert ever had a chance), and there’s a chunk of who benefit from better circumstances and/or coming along slowly.

But it’s very very easy to ruin a guy so it gets pretty evident when someone in one of those latter categories goes to a bad situation. Because so few guys will be successful regardless of their circumstances.

And I think more goes into circumstances than sitting. In fact in some cases I think it’s helpful to let someone sit just so you’re not throwing them into a horrible situation.

[Charlie Brown]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

• Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
• Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
• Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
• Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
• Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
• Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
• Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
• Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
• Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
• Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
• Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
• Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
• Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
• Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

• Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
• Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
• David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
• Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
• Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
• Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
• Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
• Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
• Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
• Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
• Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
• EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
• Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
• Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
• DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
• Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

• Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
• Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
• Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
• Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
• Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

• Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
• Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
• Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
• Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
• Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
• Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
• Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
• Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
• Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
• Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
• Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
• Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
• Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

• Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
• Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
• Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
• Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
• Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
• Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
• Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
• Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
• Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
• Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
• JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
• Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
• Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
• Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
• Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

• Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
• Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
• Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
• Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
• Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
• Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
• J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
• Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
• Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
• Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
• Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
• Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
• Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
• Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

• Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
• Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
• Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
• Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

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Hmmmmmmmm VERY NICE WORK!!!!!!!

However IMO.........I choose to ignore your well thought out and excellent post.......................................

And shall instead stick to my own irrational and obviously biased and ignorant position that a rookie NFL QB should sit, and thereby insuring their greatness!

Hence I shall act as if I never saw this wonderful post at all!!!!! 

 

[Jetsfan80]

25 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

you don't understand the negative impact of generalization, its a major flaw

Humans generalize as part of our nature.  It’s how we take lots of information and make decisions.  

[Jetsfan80]

35 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

What’s the point exactly?

The point is sitting or playing right away has no meaningful correlation on a highly drafted QB’s success.  

The opposing viewpoint (that sitting matters or makes a large impact) has been claimed by defenders of Mark Sanchez, Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson for over a decade.  

I just ended a 13-year debate.  You’re welcome.  

[Jetsfan80]

30 minutes ago, peebag said:

Right there with ya big guy!

 

I can’t stand Chad Pennington.  I put him in the “hit” pile to prove my unassailable objectivity.  

[y2k8]

Good stuff. Well done.

Further convinces me that the Jets should never draft a QB in the first round again. At least not one in the Top 10.

I can't remember where everyone on the list was drafted but it appears the splits of just Top 5 or Top 10 QBs would be fairly consistent with 1st rounders at large.

[ScarletKnight89]

It's basically a total crap shoot for the most part.

Find me a QB who can get the ball out fast and is accurate and I'll take my chances. 

The problem with a lot of these guys in college, they can afford to hold onto the ball longer because of the competition they are playing. It doesn't mean they can't get the ball out fast, they just don't have to all the time at that level. It's such a hard position to scout.

[Sonny Werblin]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

• Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
• Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
• Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
• Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
• Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
• Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
• Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
• Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
• Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
• Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
• Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
• Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
• Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
• Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

• Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
• Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
• David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
• Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
• Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
• Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
• Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
• Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
• Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
• Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
• Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
• EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
• Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
• Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
• DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
• Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

• Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
• Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
• Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
• Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
• Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

• Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
• Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
• Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
• Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
• Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
• Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
• Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
• Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
• Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
• Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
• Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
• Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
• Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

• Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
• Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
• Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
• Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
• Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
• Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
• Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
• Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
• Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
• Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
• JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
• Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
• Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
• Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
• Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

• Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
• Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
• Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
• Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
• Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
• Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
• J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
• Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
• Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
• Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
• Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
• Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
• Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
• Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

• Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
• Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
• Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
• Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

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If the NFL had adopted my preferred practice of sitting all 1st round rookie QB for one season before starting him, all of the first year rookie "hits" would hit "better" starting for the first time in their second season, i.e. Peyton Manning would not have the record for interceptions. Plus, all of the first year busts would have had a better chance of success. 

So, my systems is retrospectively statistically unequivocally better. 

 

[Flea Flicking Frank]

27 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Humans generalize as part of our nature.  It’s how we take lots of information and make decisions.  

you do a really really bad job of it