To sit or not to sit: Analysis of 1st/2nd round QBs from 1998-2020

[Bungaman]

1 hour ago, chirorob said:

Good list, I appreciate the work.

I also wonder the correlation of number of starts in college vs bust rate.  We had mentioned in another thread, you take a Peyton Manning, 40+ college games vs  our boy with 30 games played, and 400 less throws. 

Great post and great OP.

This thing about college starts occurred to me, too - and I was wondering about two other possible factors: quality of the roster they joined, and stability of the coaching staff.  But how to add those to the matrix is way beyond my gray matter.

My nitpicking choice on the list would be Jason Campbell - a good talent horrendously coached on a miserable team, the Danny Foreskins. Destined to fail.

[Warfish]

I appreciate the effort of the OP, first and foremost.

My concern, is that there are so many variables behind a QB's success at the NFL level, that I do not believe any single variable can (or ever will) explain why a QB succeeds or fails.

As I'd expect, the statistical distribution of this population is pretty much all over the map.

I think if you isolate most variables, you might see a similar distribution.

If QB success could be determined simply by running an algorithm to determine how to pick and how long to sit them and when to play them and against whom, be assured, GM's would be doing it. 

So while I appreciate the work, I don't think it actually answers the question of if a specific QB should sit or not sit when drafted.  To answer that question, we'd need to ponder many other variables for that player, team, situation, and more.  

Somewhere here is a PHD Thesis in the making....

[jeremy2020]

I'm not sure why I'm tagged in this, but it doesn't really make sense. No one makes the argument that a "QB who doesn't have it gets better by sitting". 

Zach Wilson was bad and would always be bad. Would he bet better if he had sat for a few games or years? Maybe. Would it matter? No because the difference would not be enough to make him a serviceable QB. 

[jetspenguin]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

We did.  We determined that whether a QB sits or plays right away, his processing speed very likely is what it is.  That's DNA.  It's not gonna change a whole lot through coaching, watching, or the mentoring of a veteran.  He won't be any less overwhelmed in Week 12 than he is in Week 2.  

And a case can be made its best to see what the QB looks like against live bullets as soon as possible, so you can evaluate whether his processing speed is something you can work with.

Well....I think there is a variable that is not accounted for. The school the player came from, the length of time he was a starter and the former compettition has a lot to do with just how much experience a player has prior to entering the league and thus how large the learning curve is. Additionally, the team they get drafted by and just how horrible that oline is plays a factor as well. A horrible like will/can lead to the player NOT developing the ability to make his reads and instead focus on the oncoming pass rush. 

Timeon the bench is a factor but these other items matter just as much IMO 

[THE BARON]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

• Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
• Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
• Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
• Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
• Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
• Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
• Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
• Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
• Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
• Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
• Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
• Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
• Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
• Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

• Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
• Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
• David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
• Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
• Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
• Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
• Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
• Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
• Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
• Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
• Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
• EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
• Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
• Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
• DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
• Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

• Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
• Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
• Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
• Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
• Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

• Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
• Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
• Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
• Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
• Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
• Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
• Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
• Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
• Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
• Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
• Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
• Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
• Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

• Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
• Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
• Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
• Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
• Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
• Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
• Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
• Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
• Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
• Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
• JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
• Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
• Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
• Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
• Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

• Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
• Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
• Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
• Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
• Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
• Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
• J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
• Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
• Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
• Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
• Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
• Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
• Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
• Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

• Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
• Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
• Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
• Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

@slimjasi @Jim dean @The Crusher @Anthony Jet @southparkcpa @jgb @Maxman @nj meadowlands @derp @Hal N of Provo @Dunnie @fastmover @GangGreen Machine @CanadienJetsFan @Maynard13 @Smashmouth @Jet Nut @BurnleyJet @SickJetFan @doitny @Jethead @BeaconJet @chirorob @Sonny Werblin @JetsRay @T0mShane @AlexVanDyke @Beerfish @GreenFish @Darnold Schwarzenegger @genot @#27TheDominator @More Cowbell @BroadwayJoe12 @Augustiniak @choon328 @Joejet @BornJetsFan1983 @92ShaunEllis92 @DjHoldyHold @FidelioJet @JoeNamathsFurCoat @Bungaman @carlito1171 @Barry McCockinner @oatmeal @68JET11 @Stark @Saul Goodman @VJphillyfan @Dcat @Gastineau Lives @gastineau_intestinal_tract @Suck4Sammy @WeCantDraftGoodQBs @Charlie Brown @Doggin94it @Prodigal Syndicate @sackdance @jamesr @Fantasy Island @SackExchangeNYJ @Sarge4Tide @undertow @Hex @TokyoJetsFan @Jetsfan4life90 @Lurker89 @pointman @Irish Jet @Embrace the Suck @PS17 @Spoot-Face @Beaver @Warfish @Bleedin Green @CTM @GATA @jeremy2020 @usanyj @OtherwiseHappyinLife @harts724  @WhartonJet @Integrity28 @batman10023 @jetsons @Copernicus @Jackie Treehorn @y2k8 @HawkeyeJet @Lith @TuscanyTile2 @thebuzzardman @ZachEY @St Louie Jet Fan @NIGHT STALKER @Claymation @playtowinthegame @Jetsplayer21 @Trotter @BroadwayBen @Ecuadorian Jet @maury77 @INSAMITY! @nickfoshizal @Green Ghost @pumpkin_pie @bitonti @Jet9 @Jet Life @freestater @peebag @Arsis @deckerfan @RevisIsland610 @Latinlawyer @Jets Things @JetPotato @GangGreened @Happy Clouds @sourceworx @Alka @Creepy Lurker @Jets Voice of Reason @Dan. @Darnold's Forehead @BallinPB @NJ @FlightBoyz @fullblast @TBJ @greenwave81 @juxsta @SoFlaJets @UntouchableCrew @OilfieldJet @Paradis @K Clue @Icer @Zachtomims47 @Alentador31 @Origen @Grandy @SuicidalSince98 @xJayce @DLJ @Gangrene @ultraJETfan @Jetluv58 @sciond @bd71 @JTJet @JiFields @jetstream23 @LockeJET @jetspenguin @bla bla bla @Xtina @heymangold @Obrien2Toon @PavlovsDogs @BRONX DUDE @32EBoozer @jetspower @LIJetsFan @MykePM @RoadFan @RobR @FTL Jet Fan @Jets723 @jNYC1 @MindOverMatter @Ghost420 @LSJF @dbatesman @recjet @Sammybighead @Big_Slick @peekskill68 @Thai Jet @static14 @clayton163v @Sperm Edwards @Averagejetsfan1421 @Flashlite80 @Jetworks @maury77 @JetBlue @PorP @xboxjets @Greensleeves @rangerous @RichardTodd27 @Reasonable Jets Fan @JetsMetsRangers @PepPep @JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF @Chrebetfan80 @greenwichjetfan @Gibby @kthisguy @the Claw 

Something here I do notice, but don't have the ambition to detail.

At a glance, the "hits" either those that started right away or waited to start were on well managed/coached teams, while many of the "busts" came from poorly managed/coached teams that did not improve around the QB prospect in question.

That seems to be the compelling factor.  The quality of the program they were in. 

[Jetsfan80]

11 minutes ago, jetspenguin said:

Well....I think there is a variable that is not accounted for. The school the player came from, the length of time he was a starter and the former compettition has a lot to do with just how much experience a player has prior to entering the league and thus how large the learning curve is. Additionally, the team they get drafted by and just how horrible that oline is plays a factor as well. A horrible like will/can lead to the player NOT developing the ability to make his reads and instead focus on the oncoming pass rush. 

Timeon the bench is a factor but these other items matter just as much IMO 

That’s the cool thing about sample size.  Those variables all kind of become a wash, at least for what we’re trying to look at specifically.  

[Jetsfan80]

36 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I appreciate the effort of the OP, first and foremost.

My concern, is that there are so many variables behind a QB's success at the NFL level, that I do not believe any single variable can (or ever will) explain why a QB succeeds or fails.

As I'd expect, the statistical distribution of this population is pretty much all over the map.

I think if you isolate most variables, you might see a similar distribution.

If QB success could be determined simply by running an algorithm to determine how to pick and how long to sit them and when to play them and against whom, be assured, GM's would be doing it. 

So while I appreciate the work, I don't think it actually answers the question of if a specific QB should sit or not sit when drafted.  To answer that question, we'd need to ponder many other variables for that player, team, situation, and more.  

Somewhere here is a PHD Thesis in the making....

Exactly, it comes down to a lot of other variables.  That was part of what I was going for:  Lots of things go into a QBs success.  Reading this board you would think sitting a QB down for a while is a highly important one.  Not so much, probably. 

[Gangrene]

Based on your data, there is no conclusion.

I wasn't a fan of drafting Wilson based on his his college injury history and small school background ; it seemed to me given his limited college ball experience and  a Covid shortened schedule meant that he should have sat for a year.

In his NFL rookie year, he looked lost back there playing for the Jets. 

I liked Wilson's potential but behind a bad and slowly improving oline in year one, he seemed to get nicked up too easy as did White.  Meanwhile, in the off season, I was surprised that no team took a low risk proposition matching the Jets 5th round tender on Mike White, based on the low price tag even if last year's sample size was tiny.

White had the benefit of maturing on the bench over years, there was a reason why he was cut by the Cowboys and let walk by the Jets. He simply was not at a point where he was useful to an NFL franchise. I liked much of what I saw from him last November, even then he had developed  to the point where he sees the field, and with anticipation he hits the open receivers in stride.

Previous to Wilson's recent demotion, I was on team White but now that the demotion has happened I am a fan of allowing the coaching staff to continue to nuance this.

Zach Wilson may need from now until training camp 2023 to  give him any hope of reaching his potential. He might or might not develop. Results to this point are not encouraging, but it's too early to cut bait. The light comes on late for some and never for others.

Despite his quick release, Mike White may look like a very different quarterback with the pocket collapsing around him, a jail break of pass rushers grabbing him..

Saleh sounds like he might have Wilson return to the line up this year, let's see what happens over the next six weeks.

 

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The point is sitting or playing right away has no meaningful correlation on a highly drafted QB’s success.  

The opposing viewpoint (that sitting matters or makes a large impact) has been claimed by defenders of Mark Sanchez, Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson for over a decade.  

I just ended a 13-year debate.  You’re welcome.  

And you can’t prove that by naming who did or didn’t become elite.  You wasted your time giving us a list.  You can’t prove that any of the busts wouldn’t have been better if they sat or not, etc 

QBs fail and some succeed.  Kind of believe that Marino, Cam, Burrow, Herbert whoever would have been the same if they sat as would  Darnold, Rosen too.  Just don’t see the point.  

[FidelioJet]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

• Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
• Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
• Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
• Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
• Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
• Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
• Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
• Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
• Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
• Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
• Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
• Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
• Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
• Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

• Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
• Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
• David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
• Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
• Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
• Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
• Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
• Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
• Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
• Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
• Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
• EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
• Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
• Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
• DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
• Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

• Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
• Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
• Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
• Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
• Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

• Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
• Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
• Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
• Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
• Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
• Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
• Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
• Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
• Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
• Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
• Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
• Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
• Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

• Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
• Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
• Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
• Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
• Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
• Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
• Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
• Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
• Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
• Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
• JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
• Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
• Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
• Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
• Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

• Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
• Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
• Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
• Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
• Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
• Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
• J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
• Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
• Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
• Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
• Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
• Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
• Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
• Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

• Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
• Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
• Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
• Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

@slimjasi @Jim dean @The Crusher @Anthony Jet @southparkcpa @jgb @Maxman @nj meadowlands @derp @Hal N of Provo @Dunnie @fastmover @GangGreen Machine @CanadienJetsFan @Maynard13 @Smashmouth @Jet Nut @BurnleyJet @SickJetFan @doitny @Jethead @BeaconJet @chirorob @Sonny Werblin @JetsRay @T0mShane @AlexVanDyke @Beerfish @GreenFish @Darnold Schwarzenegger @genot @#27TheDominator @More Cowbell @BroadwayJoe12 @Augustiniak @choon328 @Joejet @BornJetsFan1983 @92ShaunEllis92 @DjHoldyHold @FidelioJet @JoeNamathsFurCoat @Bungaman @carlito1171 @Barry McCockinner @oatmeal @68JET11 @Stark @Saul Goodman @VJphillyfan @Dcat @Gastineau Lives @gastineau_intestinal_tract @Suck4Sammy @WeCantDraftGoodQBs @Charlie Brown @Doggin94it @Prodigal Syndicate @sackdance @jamesr @Fantasy Island @SackExchangeNYJ @Sarge4Tide @undertow @Hex @TokyoJetsFan @Jetsfan4life90 @Lurker89 @pointman @Irish Jet @Embrace the Suck @PS17 @Spoot-Face @Beaver @Warfish @Bleedin Green @CTM @GATA @jeremy2020 @usanyj @OtherwiseHappyinLife @harts724  @WhartonJet @Integrity28 @batman10023 @jetsons @Copernicus @Jackie Treehorn @y2k8 @HawkeyeJet @Lith @TuscanyTile2 @thebuzzardman @ZachEY @St Louie Jet Fan @NIGHT STALKER @Claymation @playtowinthegame @Jetsplayer21 @Trotter @BroadwayBen @Ecuadorian Jet @maury77 @INSAMITY! @nickfoshizal @Green Ghost @pumpkin_pie @bitonti @Jet9 @Jet Life @freestater @peebag @Arsis @deckerfan @RevisIsland610 @Latinlawyer @Jets Things @JetPotato @GangGreened @Happy Clouds @sourceworx @Alka @Creepy Lurker @Jets Voice of Reason @Dan. @Darnold's Forehead @BallinPB @NJ @FlightBoyz @fullblast @TBJ @greenwave81 @juxsta @SoFlaJets @UntouchableCrew @OilfieldJet @Paradis @K Clue @Icer @Zachtomims47 @Alentador31 @Origen @Grandy @SuicidalSince98 @xJayce @DLJ @Gangrene @ultraJETfan @Jetluv58 @sciond @bd71 @JTJet @JiFields @jetstream23 @LockeJET @jetspenguin @bla bla bla @Xtina @heymangold @Obrien2Toon @PavlovsDogs @BRONX DUDE @32EBoozer @jetspower @LIJetsFan @MykePM @RoadFan @RobR @FTL Jet Fan @Jets723 @jNYC1 @MindOverMatter @Ghost420 @LSJF @dbatesman @recjet @Sammybighead @Big_Slick @peekskill68 @Thai Jet @static14 @clayton163v @Sperm Edwards @Averagejetsfan1421 @Flashlite80 @Jetworks @maury77 @JetBlue @PorP @xboxjets @Greensleeves @rangerous @RichardTodd27 @Reasonable Jets Fan @JetsMetsRangers @PepPep @JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF @Chrebetfan80 @greenwichjetfan @Gibby @kthisguy @the Claw 

Good stuff.  Super interesting to see this aggregated like this.

Thanks - I know this wasn't easy!!!

[Bleedin Green]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

 

• Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)

There seem to be some serious issues with your data.

[juxsta]

Love this post. I think about stuff like this all the time. 

Lots of stuff to weigh over in there. For me, I feel you can see a guy and right away know if he's got the it factor. Sometimes guys come around after awhile, change of coach ,scenery, etc. like Tannehill did but most of the time you just know...For example , look at Sauce. That dude looks like he was made in a lab for Football. Has all the tangibles, instincts and talent right out of the gate. Same with QB's to me. Regardless of the teams record , you can tell if the QB is built for the long haul or a just flash in the pan to become career backup/journeyman or bust out.

[Flea Flicking Frank]

40 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Exactly, it comes down to a lot of other variables.  That was part of what I was going for:  Lots of things go into a QBs success.  Reading this board you would think sitting a QB down for a while is a highly important one.  Not so much, probably. 

The problem here is you didn't prove jack sh*t. This was a long winded attempt to say ZW would suck whether or not he sat.

Its an absolute impossible proof.

Your methodology was highly flawed. If this could be done, it would need Bayes, which you clearly don't use. Not only did you not use it, you don't have the n to prove anything in either direction. Stick to bad posts, you're much better at that.

[doitny]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

QBASE has this as one of their top 2 criteria for projecting pro QB success.  # of starts in college absolutely matters a great deal when it comes to the likelihood of pro success.

But the solution for NFL teams isn't to let those kids sit for a while.  It's to not draft them in the first place.  You have to know how to play the position long before you arrive in the league, and that includes both HS AND collegiate experience.  Sam Darnold playing Linebacker in HS and only getting 27 collegiate starts at QB should have been enormous red flags.  

right. the minor leagues for the NFL is called college. once they get up here they should be ready to play.

btw i love the research man. good job.

this just proves what i always said, devolvement on this level is BS. you either got it or not. 

[jetstream23]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

• Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
• Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
• Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
• Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
• Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
• Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
• Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
• Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
• Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
• Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
• Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
• Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
• Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
• Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

• Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
• Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
• David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
• Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
• Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
• Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
• Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
• Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
• Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
• Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
• Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
• EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
• Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
• Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
• DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
• Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

• Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
• Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
• Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
• Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
• Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

• Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
• Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
• Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
• Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
• Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
• Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
• Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
• Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
• Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
• Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
• Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
• Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
• Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

• Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
• Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
• Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
• Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
• Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
• Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
• Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
• Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
• Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
• Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
• JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
• Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
• Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
• Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
• Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

• Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
• Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
• Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
• Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
• Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
• Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
• J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
• Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
• Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
• Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
• Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
• Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
• Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
• Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

• Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
• Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
• Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
• Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

@slimjasi @Jim dean @The Crusher @Anthony Jet @southparkcpa @jgb @Maxman @nj meadowlands @derp @Hal N of Provo @Dunnie @fastmover @GangGreen Machine @CanadienJetsFan @Maynard13 @Smashmouth @Jet Nut @BurnleyJet @SickJetFan @doitny @Jethead @BeaconJet @chirorob @Sonny Werblin @JetsRay @T0mShane @AlexVanDyke @Beerfish @GreenFish @Darnold Schwarzenegger @genot @#27TheDominator @More Cowbell @BroadwayJoe12 @Augustiniak @choon328 @Joejet @BornJetsFan1983 @92ShaunEllis92 @DjHoldyHold @FidelioJet @JoeNamathsFurCoat @Bungaman @carlito1171 @Barry McCockinner @oatmeal @68JET11 @Stark @Saul Goodman @VJphillyfan @Dcat @Gastineau Lives @gastineau_intestinal_tract @Suck4Sammy @WeCantDraftGoodQBs @Charlie Brown @Doggin94it @Prodigal Syndicate @sackdance @jamesr @Fantasy Island @SackExchangeNYJ @Sarge4Tide @undertow @Hex @TokyoJetsFan @Jetsfan4life90 @Lurker89 @pointman @Irish Jet @Embrace the Suck @PS17 @Spoot-Face @Beaver @Warfish @Bleedin Green @CTM @GATA @jeremy2020 @usanyj @OtherwiseHappyinLife @harts724  @WhartonJet @Integrity28 @batman10023 @jetsons @Copernicus @Jackie Treehorn @y2k8 @HawkeyeJet @Lith @TuscanyTile2 @thebuzzardman @ZachEY @St Louie Jet Fan @NIGHT STALKER @Claymation @playtowinthegame @Jetsplayer21 @Trotter @BroadwayBen @Ecuadorian Jet @maury77 @INSAMITY! @nickfoshizal @Green Ghost @pumpkin_pie @bitonti @Jet9 @Jet Life @freestater @peebag @Arsis @deckerfan @RevisIsland610 @Latinlawyer @Jets Things @JetPotato @GangGreened @Happy Clouds @sourceworx @Alka @Creepy Lurker @Jets Voice of Reason @Dan. @Darnold's Forehead @BallinPB @NJ @FlightBoyz @fullblast @TBJ @greenwave81 @juxsta @SoFlaJets @UntouchableCrew @OilfieldJet @Paradis @K Clue @Icer @Zachtomims47 @Alentador31 @Origen @Grandy @SuicidalSince98 @xJayce @DLJ @Gangrene @ultraJETfan @Jetluv58 @sciond @bd71 @JTJet @JiFields @jetstream23 @LockeJET @jetspenguin @bla bla bla @Xtina @heymangold @Obrien2Toon @PavlovsDogs @BRONX DUDE @32EBoozer @jetspower @LIJetsFan @MykePM @RoadFan @RobR @FTL Jet Fan @Jets723 @jNYC1 @MindOverMatter @Ghost420 @LSJF @dbatesman @recjet @Sammybighead @Big_Slick @peekskill68 @Thai Jet @static14 @clayton163v @Sperm Edwards @Averagejetsfan1421 @Flashlite80 @Jetworks @maury77 @JetBlue @PorP @xboxjets @Greensleeves @rangerous @RichardTodd27 @Reasonable Jets Fan @JetsMetsRangers @PepPep @JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF @Chrebetfan80 @greenwichjetfan @Gibby @kthisguy @the Claw 

 

For the guys who started in the first 3 weeks how windy was it during their first season?

 

[Xtina]

Yes but who’s to say the busts that started right away wouldn’t have benefited from sitting before starting 

[Xtina]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

And you can’t prove that by naming who did or didn’t become elite.  You wasted your time giving us a list.  You can’t prove that any of the busts wouldn’t have been better if they sat or not, etc 

QBs fail and some succeed.  Kind of believe that Marino, Cam, Burrow, Herbert whoever would have been the same if they sat as would  Darnold, Rosen too.  Just don’t see the point.  

Highly flawed “study” 

[SickJetFan]

I think every situation is different.   For Zach, the reason they should have sat him was not so much to learn but rather what they did is throw him into the fire where they themselves didn't know what the **** they were doing.  The OL couldn't handle stunts, couldn't block learning zone for 1st time, had GVR as well, receivers dropping passes, and the kid was getting planted into the ground especially in his 1st game.  You wonder maybe he is now shell shocked/ruined because of.

The OC begging coach to go up in booth because he cant see the field through everyone's dick, they lost the QB coach so the were probably learning on the fly how to be a QB coach teaching him one thing then probably correcting themselves and teaching then another, etc.. confusing the **** out of him.

who knows what was going on there behind the scenes.  yes Lisa son (man she is hot) could have been the problem all along but only they know that and unless someone does a tell all book they will be the only ones who will ever know that OR we be patient and wait couple years to see what happens.  Enjoy the game.

[Flea Flicking Frank]

6 minutes ago, Xtina said:

Yes but who’s to say the busts that started right away wouldn’t have benefited from sitting before starting 

Not only this, it also takes no concept of who was more NFL ready and who was not NFL ready and assumes everyone equal, which is flat out not true at all. That in itself can be broken down to fundamentals as well as ability to read a defense among other things. This study was a useless waste of time in an attempt to attack ZW instead of enjoying how good Mike White played last week and hoping he keeps it up and nobody will give a crap about ZW anymore if he does

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

• Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
• Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
• Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
• Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
• Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
• Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
• Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
• Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
• Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
• Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
• Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
• Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
• Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
• Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

• Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
• Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
• David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
• Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
• Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
• Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
• Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
• Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
• Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
• Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
• Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
• EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
• Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
• Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
• DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
• Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

• Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
• Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
• Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
• Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
• Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

• Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
• Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
• Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
• Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
• Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
• Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
• Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
• Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
• Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
• Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
• Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
• Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
• Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

• Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
• Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
• Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
• Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
• Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
• Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
• Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
• Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
• Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
• Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
• JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
• Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
• Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
• Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
• Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

• Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
• Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
• Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
• Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
• Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
• Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
• J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
• Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
• Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
• Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
• Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
• Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
• Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
• Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

• Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
• Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
• Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
• Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

@slimjasi @Jim dean @The Crusher @Anthony Jet @southparkcpa @jgb @Maxman @nj meadowlands @derp @Hal N of Provo @Dunnie @fastmover @GangGreen Machine @CanadienJetsFan @Maynard13 @Smashmouth @Jet Nut @BurnleyJet @SickJetFan @doitny @Jethead @BeaconJet @chirorob @Sonny Werblin @JetsRay @T0mShane @AlexVanDyke @Beerfish @GreenFish @Darnold Schwarzenegger @genot @#27TheDominator @More Cowbell @BroadwayJoe12 @Augustiniak @choon328 @Joejet @BornJetsFan1983 @92ShaunEllis92 @DjHoldyHold @FidelioJet @JoeNamathsFurCoat @Bungaman @carlito1171 @Barry McCockinner @oatmeal @68JET11 @Stark @Saul Goodman @VJphillyfan @Dcat @Gastineau Lives @gastineau_intestinal_tract @Suck4Sammy @WeCantDraftGoodQBs @Charlie Brown @Doggin94it @Prodigal Syndicate @sackdance @jamesr @Fantasy Island @SackExchangeNYJ @Sarge4Tide @undertow @Hex @TokyoJetsFan @Jetsfan4life90 @Lurker89 @pointman @Irish Jet @Embrace the Suck @PS17 @Spoot-Face @Beaver @Warfish @Bleedin Green @CTM @GATA @jeremy2020 @usanyj @OtherwiseHappyinLife @harts724  @WhartonJet @Integrity28 @batman10023 @jetsons @Copernicus @Jackie Treehorn @y2k8 @HawkeyeJet @Lith @TuscanyTile2 @thebuzzardman @ZachEY @St Louie Jet Fan @NIGHT STALKER @Claymation @playtowinthegame @Jetsplayer21 @Trotter @BroadwayBen @Ecuadorian Jet @maury77 @INSAMITY! @nickfoshizal @Green Ghost @pumpkin_pie @bitonti @Jet9 @Jet Life @freestater @peebag @Arsis @deckerfan @RevisIsland610 @Latinlawyer @Jets Things @JetPotato @GangGreened @Happy Clouds @sourceworx @Alka @Creepy Lurker @Jets Voice of Reason @Dan. @Darnold's Forehead @BallinPB @NJ @FlightBoyz @fullblast @TBJ @greenwave81 @juxsta @SoFlaJets @UntouchableCrew @OilfieldJet @Paradis @K Clue @Icer @Zachtomims47 @Alentador31 @Origen @Grandy @SuicidalSince98 @xJayce @DLJ @Gangrene @ultraJETfan @Jetluv58 @sciond @bd71 @JTJet @JiFields @jetstream23 @LockeJET @jetspenguin @bla bla bla @Xtina @heymangold @Obrien2Toon @PavlovsDogs @BRONX DUDE @32EBoozer @jetspower @LIJetsFan @MykePM @RoadFan @RobR @FTL Jet Fan @Jets723 @jNYC1 @MindOverMatter @Ghost420 @LSJF @dbatesman @recjet @Sammybighead @Big_Slick @peekskill68 @Thai Jet @static14 @clayton163v @Sperm Edwards @Averagejetsfan1421 @Flashlite80 @Jetworks @maury77 @JetBlue @PorP @xboxjets @Greensleeves @rangerous @RichardTodd27 @Reasonable Jets Fan @JetsMetsRangers @PepPep @JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF @Chrebetfan80 @greenwichjetfan @Gibby @kthisguy @the Claw 

Wow- great analysis!  Thanks for putting this together.  Data tells a story and is often in conflict with even prevailing narratives.

I wonder if any of the busts would have turned into hits in the right situation.  My feeling is most likely yes BUT I would guesstimate that not many busts would otherwise turn into stars.  Truly believe you either have it or you don’t in the game of football.  

[Jetsfan80]

6 hours ago, Jets Things said:

Are we really closing the door on Paxton Lynch? 

@Paradis

[Smashmouth]

 My answer to the @Jetsfan80 thread that I Didn't read is Mike White

[Jets Things]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

@Paradis

I forgot to tag him. 

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

6 hours ago, Warfish said:

Also, where is Kirk Cousins, he sat for three years I believe, then played.

Kinda like Mike White.

He didn't really "sit."  He was drafted as a back up.  He sat like Brady "sat."   Cmon.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Xtina said:

Yes but who’s to say the busts that started right away wouldn’t have benefited from sitting before starting 

There's no way to prove that one way or another.  All we can look at is correlation, not causation, because that's a hypothetical we can never test. 

I can easily state the opposite:  Who's to say a successful QB who was sat to start wouldn't have been about as successful if he played right away?  Think those 15 games that Pat Mahomes sat his rookie year made a big impact on his success?  How about the 6 games that Josh Allen sat?  Were they meaningful?  Or the >1 season Rodgers, Brees, Rivers and Eli Manning sat.  Would they have not been successful QB's without that experience (or lack thereof)?

Since there isn't a significantly higher % of QB's who succeed by sitting versus succeed by playing right away, there isn't really any way one can make a convincing argument that it is some crucial decision for a QB's development.  

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Xtina said:

Highly flawed “study” 

It isn't a study, because it can't be tested.  There isn't a control group.  

It was never intended to be a study.  Just a review of the data available on how long QB's sat and which ones succeeded.  That's it. 

But that doesn't mean there aren't any conclusions that can be drawn from it.  Which is to say:  There really isn't a conclusion.  No meaningful claims can be made either way.  I.E. arguing about sitting/starting is a waste of time.  Yet there are several threads debating just that as if there's a right answer there.  There isn't. 

What I take from the data:  It likely wouldn't have mattered if Mark Sanchez, Sam Darnold or Zach Wilson sat 3 games, 8 games, or a full season.  They all likely would be about the same product that they are no matter what.  

[southparkcpa]

6 hours ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

There are way too many variables, and way too small of a sample to do this analysis with any meaning at all. This is a total waste of time and tells you literally nothing.

 

BS....  it's a fairly good study and the results are what we expected. @Jetsfan80

[Flea Flicking Frank]

11 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

BS....  it's a fairly good study and the results are what we expected. @Jetsfan80

its a trash study and the results are exactly what you and he wanted to see, that doesnt make it good science, it makes it biased, bad science. 

[Paradis]

7 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

• Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
• Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
• Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
• Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
• Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
• Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
• Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
• Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
• Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
• Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
• Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
• Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
• Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
• Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

• Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
• Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
• David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
• Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
• Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
• Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
• Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
• Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
• Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
• Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
• Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
• EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
• Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
• Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
• DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
• Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

• Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
• Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
• Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
• Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
• Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

• Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
• Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
• Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
• Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
• Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
• Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
• Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
• Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
• Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
• Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
• Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
• Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
• Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

• Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
• Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
• Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
• Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
• Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
• Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
• Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
• Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
• Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
• Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
• JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
• Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
• Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
• Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
• Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

• Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
• Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
• Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
• Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
• Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
• Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
• J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
• Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
• Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
• Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
• Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
• Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
• Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
• Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

• Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
• Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
• Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
• Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

@slimjasi @Jim dean @The Crusher @Anthony Jet @southparkcpa @jgb @Maxman @nj meadowlands @derp @Hal N of Provo @Dunnie @fastmover @GangGreen Machine @CanadienJetsFan @Maynard13 @Smashmouth @Jet Nut @BurnleyJet @SickJetFan @doitny @Jethead @BeaconJet @chirorob @Sonny Werblin @JetsRay @T0mShane @AlexVanDyke @Beerfish @GreenFish @Darnold Schwarzenegger @genot @#27TheDominator @More Cowbell @BroadwayJoe12 @Augustiniak @choon328 @Joejet @BornJetsFan1983 @92ShaunEllis92 @DjHoldyHold @FidelioJet @JoeNamathsFurCoat @Bungaman @carlito1171 @Barry McCockinner @oatmeal @68JET11 @Stark @Saul Goodman @VJphillyfan @Dcat @Gastineau Lives @gastineau_intestinal_tract @Suck4Sammy @WeCantDraftGoodQBs @Charlie Brown @Doggin94it @Prodigal Syndicate @sackdance @jamesr @Fantasy Island @SackExchangeNYJ @Sarge4Tide @undertow @Hex @TokyoJetsFan @Jetsfan4life90 @Lurker89 @pointman @Irish Jet @Embrace the Suck @PS17 @Spoot-Face @Beaver @Warfish @Bleedin Green @CTM @GATA @jeremy2020 @usanyj @OtherwiseHappyinLife @harts724  @WhartonJet @Integrity28 @batman10023 @jetsons @Copernicus @Jackie Treehorn @y2k8 @HawkeyeJet @Lith @TuscanyTile2 @thebuzzardman @ZachEY @St Louie Jet Fan @NIGHT STALKER @Claymation @playtowinthegame @Jetsplayer21 @Trotter @BroadwayBen @Ecuadorian Jet @maury77 @INSAMITY! @nickfoshizal @Green Ghost @pumpkin_pie @bitonti @Jet9 @Jet Life @freestater @peebag @Arsis @deckerfan @RevisIsland610 @Latinlawyer @Jets Things @JetPotato @GangGreened @Happy Clouds @sourceworx @Alka @Creepy Lurker @Jets Voice of Reason @Dan. @Darnold's Forehead @BallinPB @NJ @FlightBoyz @fullblast @TBJ @greenwave81 @juxsta @SoFlaJets @UntouchableCrew @OilfieldJet @Paradis @K Clue @Icer @Zachtomims47 @Alentador31 @Origen @Grandy @SuicidalSince98 @xJayce @DLJ @Gangrene @ultraJETfan @Jetluv58 @sciond @bd71 @JTJet @JiFields @jetstream23 @LockeJET @jetspenguin @bla bla bla @Xtina @heymangold @Obrien2Toon @PavlovsDogs @BRONX DUDE @32EBoozer @jetspower @LIJetsFan @MykePM @RoadFan @RobR @FTL Jet Fan @Jets723 @jNYC1 @MindOverMatter @Ghost420 @LSJF @dbatesman @recjet @Sammybighead @Big_Slick @peekskill68 @Thai Jet @static14 @clayton163v @Sperm Edwards @Averagejetsfan1421 @Flashlite80 @Jetworks @maury77 @JetBlue @PorP @xboxjets @Greensleeves @rangerous @RichardTodd27 @Reasonable Jets Fan @JetsMetsRangers @PepPep @JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF @Chrebetfan80 @greenwichjetfan @Gibby @kthisguy @the Claw 

Nice list. Lot of a names/faces in there... lol Cade McNown. 

No statistician would be able to draw a significant correlation coefficient from this... all it tells me is that coaches matter. they know when to hit the gas and when to pull the plug.  

[Maynard13]

7 hours ago, Warfish said:

Also, where is Kirk Cousins, he sat for three years I believe, then played.

Kinda like Mike White.

Mike White did not sit for three years. He got up, sat, got up, sat, got up, sat, got up, sat, got up, sat then got up.

[Paradis]

7 hours ago, SuicidalSince98 said:

Does anyone care at this point? 

lol why do you even get up in the morning.

[Maynard13]

28 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It isn't a study, because it can't be tested.  There isn't a control group.  

It was never intended to be a study.  Just a review of the data available on how long QB's sat and which ones succeeded.  That's it. 

But that doesn't mean there aren't any conclusions that can be drawn from it.  Which is to say:  There really isn't a conclusion.  No meaningful claims can be made either way.  I.E. arguing about sitting/starting is a waste of time.  Yet there are several threads debating just that as if there's a right answer there.  There isn't. 

What I take from the data:  It likely wouldn't have mattered if Mark Sanchez, Sam Darnold or Zach Wilson sat 3 games, 8 games, or a full season.  They all likely would be about the same product that they are no matter what.  

Does @Maxman pay you to come up with these things? I hope so ?️?️

[Paradis]

53 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

@Paradis

if only god hadn't invented the Xbox... apparently he was more concerned about logging in the hours there than he was in the film room.

#RIP P. Lynch.

[southparkcpa]

5 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

its a trash study and the results are exactly what you and he wanted to see, that doesnt make it good science, it makes it biased, bad science. 

The sample size, statistically  speaking, was fairly close to the population. What more would you like to see?  

[SuicidalSince98]

7 minutes ago, Paradis said:

lol why do you even get up in the morning.

Good question